Amdist the #MeToo and #TimesUp movements, the awards season has been delving more into the political and social issues of these movies. The conversations, arguments and comments are either understandable or ludicrous. But, during this important time, the social commentary or controversies have been surrounding mostly all of the nine Best Picture nominees. So, the question is which will win for Best Picture? Here are my predictions in the top categories.
BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will win & Should win: The Shape of Water
Dark Horse: Get Out, Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Dunkirk
During the awards season, Call Me By Your Name was getting momentum but it lost a lot since the Golden Globes. However, after the Golden Globes, Three Billboards... was now jolted into the Best Picture conversation. BUT, The Shape of Water won the PGA: a BIG winner in the awards circuit before the Oscar. Three Billboards...has been getting some controversy regarding the racism in that movie. Even though Three Billboards...has a strong chance, The Shape of Water, a charming fantasy sci-fi film, will get the big award at the end of the night. This is one of the two toughest categories to predict. However, I would not count Get Out completely yet. Because of the Three Billboards... controversy, I think four other movies have a shot for this.
BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Jordan Peele - Get Out
Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread
Will win & Should win: Guillermo Del Toro - The Shape of Water
Dark Horse: Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk
Guillermo Del Toro has been getting all the love for Best Director in all of the awards banquets so it'll be awesome if he gets one more. But, there is a slim possibility for Nolan to get it.
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluyya - Get Out
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Should win: Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Dark Horse: Timothée Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
Except for Denzel, I would not mind any of the other four actors winning Best Actor. Yes, Gary Oldman will win the Best Actor trophy. However, Chalamet really carried that movie, along with Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg (who got heavily overlooked), into a whole other level. But, for Oldman, I think this may be a lifetime achievement award. And, I don't mind, he gives a great performance in Darkest Hour. Nevertheless, he is great in many movies.
BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird
Meryl Streep - The Post
Will win & Should win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dark Horse: Margot Robbie - I, Tonya
It's McDormand. No question. I thought she gave my favorite female performance of 2017. If anybody has an outside shot, I thought Ronan (I think she has a shot too) but something tells me that Margot Robbie may have an outside shot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Will win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should win: Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water
Dark horse: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project
This is Sam Rockwell's to lose in my mind as he has been getting all of the awards. But, I thought Jenkins should win because of his subtle, nuanced performance opposite Sally Hawkins that really made the 1-2 man/woman show work against the tide. However, I would not count out Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project. I would be all right if either one of these three wins this category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water
Will win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Should win: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Dark Horse: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird
Boy...can we get a tie between Janney and Metcalf? Look, Janney is going to win no doubt as she has become an actress that has flown under the radar and has been in numerous movies. But, in the "should win" category", yes, I would put Janney to win, but, by a slim margin if I were to choose one, it would be Metcalf as she resembled actually one of the realest mothers ever as she is strict and forgiving. Both give fantastic performances.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will win & Should win: Get Out
Dark Horse: Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This is the hardest category to predict. I'd give to any of the five movies. However Three Billboards...I'd rank fifth because it depended heavily on the jargon in Missouri more than the heavy material even though I praise it. But, I'd pick Get Out because of its originality in its craft that if the Academy wants to spread the wealth, I'd give it to Jordan Peele for accomplishing the task of writing a future horror classic. Don't count on Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound
Will win & should win: Call Me By Your Name
Dark Horse: Logan
I think this is Call Me By Your Name's only Oscar on Sunday. No dark horse but if I had to pick one that has a slim choice I'd pick Logan.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Will win & should win: Coco
Dark Horse: Loving Vincent
Yeah. Coco. No contest. If there was a shocking upset, it may be Loving Vincent.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Will win & should win: Faces Places
Dark Horse: Icarus
Yeah, Faces Places will be the runaway winner for this category. And, prior to the nominations, Faces Places was the only one I saw. I did see Strong Island and it is a very good documentary. However, I have yet to see Icarus but I read that it is gaining momentum so I'll keep that as a dark horse. But, I'm confident with this pick.
Well, that's that for the main categories. The Oscars will be televised and streamed on March 4th. That is going to be an interesting night.
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